XRP ETF odds surge 85% as price holds key support

By Zunain Balouch - Crypto Content Writer
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrencies are a high-risk asset class. This article does not constitute investment advice and is provided for informational purposes only. You could lose all of your capital.
XRP
Cover illustration/art via BTCRead. Image combines content, which may include AI-generated ideas.

XRP’s price dropped by 5% in the last day as the latest GDP report revealed a shrinking economy. The market is showing signs of gaining strength and investors are becoming more optimistic about the approval of a spot XRP ETF in the U.S. Because of this, XRP could soon surge to its April high of $2.36.

XRP is currently following a pattern called a “falling wedge.” This happens when the price keeps dropping but at a slower rate. The pattern indicates that the downward trend is losing steam, which could mean the price might start to rise soon.

The pattern will be resolved if the price breaks above the upper trendline at $2.40. If that happens, buyers could aim for $3.74 next, which would be a 71% increase from the current price.

XRP/USD daily chart
XRP/USD daily chart | Source: TradingView

XRP rally ahead? ETF approval odds hit 85%

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently above the middle point, suggesting that market conditions still leaning towards an upward trend. However, to keep the recovery going, XRP needs to maintain support at $2.20 and then break through the resistance range between $2.80 and $3.00.

Several analysts remain optimistic that the altcoin can bounce back to its previous all-time highs. Popular trader Dark Defender believes the current drop is just part of an Elliott Wave pattern, and that eventually, “XRP will continue its rise to the top.” Fellow Trader Allincrypto believes XRP is on track to reach $19.27, citing a breakout from a falling wedge pattern.

Where we are pulling back is textbook perfect, and we had highlighted a falling wedge that was present on XRP that ultimately was just going for a continuation to $19.27.

According to Bloomberg senior analysts, there’s now an 85% chance that the SEC will approve five spot XRP ETFs following the recent change in the agency’s leadership. The firms include Grayscale, 21Shares, WisdomTree, Bitwise, Canary, and Franklin Templeton.

This is a major improvement from their prediction just two months ago when they estimated the chances of an XRP approval in 2025 at only 65%. The odds of an XRP ETF getting approved by Dec. 31 now stand at 80% on Polymarket. Over the past week, the chances of approval have increased by 17% from about 63% on Apr. 23.

XRP ETF approval odds on Polymarket
XRP ETF approval odds on Polymarket | Source: Polymarket

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Zunain is an experienced crypto writer with a passion for delivering insightful and engaging content to audiences seeking up-to-date information about cryptocurrency and finance. With several years of experience, Zunain has a deep understanding of blockchain technology, digital assets, and the intricacies of the financial market. In his spare time, he loves traveling and enjoys playing cricket, snooker, and football.
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