XRP is currently trading at $2.97, down 4.77% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. Its market capitalization has declined to $176.56 billion, while 24-hour trading volume has surged 46.86% to $5.89 billion. The circulating supply stands at 59.41 billion XRP out of a maximum supply of 100 billion.
The sudden spike that pushed XRP above $3 earlier this week left 93.92% of the circulating supply in profit, according to Glassnode data. Earlier this year, XRP traded below $0.40, making this surge a gain of more than 500%. While such gains are encouraging for holders, past instances where over 90% of the supply was in profit ended with sharp market reversals.
On-Chain metrics and potential price drop
Analysts refer to on-chain metrics as proof that XRP may be near a local high. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has reached the ‘belief–denial’ zone. This zone has frequently indicated peaks before further losses. While the indicator has not yet broken into greed, the risk of severe profit-taking increases if it does.
The chart also indicates XRP trading within a declining triangle formation with regularly occurring lower highs. The horizontal support level around $3.05 has been breached once in a false break. Ongoing tests of the zone make the token vulnerable to a decisive breakdown. A confirmed move below this point could send prices plummeting to $2.39, a decline of 23.5% from the current level.
A rally between $3.25–$3.50 could spark the next big upswing
Although the technical setup indicates prudence, analysts are optimistic. If XRP remains above $3.05 and attracts new inflows, it may pick up speed again. A rally above resistance in the $3.25–$3.50 area may invite another upswing. If so, targets stretch up to $6, and analyst projections, such as those from Cryptobull, estimate up to $7.20 if key resistance is overcome.
The market now stands at a critical juncture. Profit-taking is a clear risk after such a powerful upswing, but renewed buying could still step in to hold the line on prices. Traders are monitoring the $3.05 support level intently, since the next definite movement will probably decide whether XRP corrects sharply or returns to its upswing.
