Bitcoin has entered Stage 2.4, known as the Trend Continuation phase, following a confirmed weekly close above its all-time high. This confirmation indicates a structural transition within the broader cycle.
Bitcoin weekly close confirms phase shift
To understand the market trend, Gert Van Legan’s analysis shows a complete market cycle from accumulation to distribution phases across several years. The cycle begins with phase 1.1, marking the start of accumulation after a long downtrend.
A fast price move follows in 1.2, then pre-tension builds slowly in phase 1.3 before trend continuation. Phase 2.1 marks re-accumulation, forming a range before another fast upward move in 2.2. Pre-tension builds again in 2.3, followed by trend continuation in 2.4 as prices climb further. Distribution starts in 3.1, with fast movement in 3.2 and weakening trend in 3.3. The cycle ends in full-blown recession after redistribution and trend collapse in 4.1.
A weekly candle close above the previous all-time high has confirmed Bitcoin’s movement into Stage 2.4. This development follows the prior Stage 2.2, with price consolidation completing the re-accumulation process. The timeframe between Stage 2.2 and 2.4 remains under watch for validation.
Two invalidation conditions identified as market tension builds
There are two specific conditions that would invalidate this stage. The first structural is a weekly close below $77,700. The second is based on time if the duration between Stage 2.2 and this confirmation exceeds the length of Stage 2.1. That earlier stage involved a re-accumulation period which acted as a foundation for the current trend.
With a trading price value of $94,185 and a 24-hour drop of 0.44%, the market cap stands at $1.87 trillion, while the fully diluted valuation reaches $1.97 trillion. However, the trading volume for the past 24 hours rose 3.67%, reaching $22.64 billion. The volume-to-market cap ratio is 1.21%, indicating steady trading activity relative to valuation.
The two conditions for confirmation fit the set cycle structure, as the conditions for invalidation are now clearer. These conditions determine whether the continuation of the trend is legitimate or not based on the given criteria. If either invalidation metric is active, the current Bitcoin phase would not hold any longer.
