Bitcoin is set to quickly regain $64,000 as the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates. In its latest monthly update on Sept. 17, Capriole Investments, a quantitative fund focused on Bitcoin and digital assets, pointed out that BTC’s price movement is at a critical crossroads.
Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards believes Bitcoin stands for significant gains as we head into the fourth quarter, traditionally the strongest period for the market. Although Bitcoin hasn’t seen much movement over the past month, it could be ready to kick off a classic bull market if the Federal Reserve decides to lower interest rates in its meeting on Sept. 18.
The report highlights the beginning of the Fed’s new, more lenient approach, marking its first major shift since late 2021. The Fed signaled a tough stance back then, leading to interest rates climbing from 0 to 5.5% in just 18 months.
Bitcoin turning point: Analyzing 2024 trends
According to TradingView data, this tough monetary policy came just as Bitcoin plummeted from $60,000 to $15,000. Now, they’re entering a completely different phase. Unless the Fed throws us any unexpected curveballs, Bitcoin could aim for $64,000, having managed to hold its weekly support.
The report dismissed worries about changing BTC supply trends, suggesting that new developments, like US spot Bitcoin ETFs, have distorted people’s views of the situation. Edwards explained that 2024 has brought significant shifts in capital due to the ETF launch and the Mt. Gox situation. This movement of capital has misrepresented many on-chain metrics and created a misleading narrative.
The latest findings indicate that data on supply ownership based on how long it stays dormant, often used to classify “long-term holders” and “short-term holders”, isn’t reliable in 2024. He concluded, “With Bitcoin trading just 2% away from our last update, we still believe, as we stated in Issue 53, that we’re at a major turning point.”
Moreover, he mentioned that timing the Federal Reserve’s policy easing is important. Historically, BTC tends to perform well in the fourth quarter and is approaching the end of its usual consolidation period following the last dividing.
