The Bitcoin market finds itself in a unique position, with average coin profits up 2x while most short-term holders are underwater. This comes as volatility measures compress, hinting at a potentially significant move on the horizon.
According to a recent Glassnode report, the sell-off to the $60,000 range sparked fear among digital asset investors. However, the MVRV Ratio shows overall investor profitability remains strong.
Diving deeper into the data reveals a stark contrast between different investor groups. Coins in profit boast an average unrealized gain of $41,300, with a cost basis of approximately $19,400. On the flip side, coins in loss face an average unrealized loss of $5,300, with a cost basis of around $66,100.
The ratio of unrealized profit to loss per coin currently stands at 8.2x, a level seen in only 18% of trading days historically during bull markets. This statistic raises questions about whether the March all-time high following ETF approvals shared characteristics with previous bull market peaks.
Bitcoin short-term holders’ risk assessment
Short-term holders (STH) face heightened risk in the current market setting. On average, coins with a lifespan of 1 day to 3 months are experiencing losses, indicating the unprofitable trend of recent price stabilization for traders and investors. Only the 3-6 month STH group is in the green, with an average purchase price of $58,000.
Technical indicators offer a deeper understanding. At present, the 200-day moving average stands at $58,000, indicating momentum trends. Moreover, the URPD metric highlights a marked concentration of available supply, totaling 2.63 million Bitcoin, equivalent to 13.4% of the circulating supply, within the range of $60,000 to $70,000. This concentration suggests that investors are particularly attentive to potential price declines below $60,000.
Volatility measures across multiple timeframes have now reached historically low levels. The Sell-Side Risk Ratio, which evaluates actual profit and loss compared to market size, has declined to a level observed in only 5% of trading days. These signals often precede major shifts in the market.
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