In the past, September has been a difficult month for Bitcoin (BTC), and if the trend continues, the cryptocurrency may suffer another decline. According to QCP Capital, out of the last seven Septembers, six were red, and the average loss was 4.5%. If that pattern continues, Bitcoin might fall to about $55,000 this month.
The pessimistic forecast comes from Bitcoin’s difficult August, which ended with an 8.6% decline. QCP Capital’s report mentioned that Bitcoin had a hard time recovering from the “BOJ crash” at the beginning of August. As a result, it remained below $65,000.
Even though the forecast is gloomy for September, QCP is of the opinion that Bitcoin will be able to rely on the support of $54,000 which is a price level that BTC successfully recaptured in July before the following rally to nearly $70,000.
Macro data’s minimal impact on Bitcoin price
The report claims that the overall economic statistics, particularly the Unemployment Claims that will be released on Sep. 5 and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Sep. 6, will not provoke any significant changes in the short run as far as Bitcoin price is concerned. The tendency has been that, in the last few weeks, macro data has had less influence on the crypto prices.
The anticipated market volatility curve is to be more pronounced as the decrease in the front-end volatility is predicted, with the roll-out of more long calls until March for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
QCP reported that traders bought an additional 200 BTC valued at $120,000 in March 25 call options, increasing the total number of contracts to 2,100. Apparently, this shows the structural bullish sentiment prevailing for the medium term, although the market is currently calming down.
At the same time, the analyst Daan Crypto Trades pointed out the cycles of the Bitcoin price changes. He stresses the fact that it is almost impossible to catch the market right. He advised that holding the stock might be the best strategy for most investors, given the unpredictable nature of short-term market swings.
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