Crypto treasury companies are at a crossroads now that the industry is exiting previously guaranteed gainful returns.
Coinbase research head David Duong and researcher Colin Basco described that competition will determine the winners in the future.
They mentioned that the cryptocurrency treasury space has achieved what they describe as a player vs player competitive stage.
Companies now rely on execution, differentiation, and timing instead of simply replicating strategies previously attempted by MicroStrategy.
Duong and Basco highlighted that first movers like Strategy once enjoyed high advantages, but today those advantages have diminished.
According to them, first-mover premiums for scarcity that were present have evaporated as more entrants have joined the growing older marketplace.
Oversaturation Threatens Future of Crypto Treasuries
Analysts also cautioned that oversaturation is posing risks, with most crypto treasury companies possibly unable to survive in the long term.
NYDIG earlier stated that some of the treasury companies experienced valuation drops, while Bitcoin climbed to $115,516 levels.
Duong and Basco believe that survival today hinges on strategic positioning, operational efficiency, and delivering reliable performance to investors seeking stability.
They also ruled out the September effect, as they mentioned that Bitcoin’s historical falls between 2017 and 2022 lack predictive power.
They cannot rely on monthly seasonal patterns to inform investments, as those recent years of Bitcoin defied those historical precedents.
Emphasizing that the use of the month of the year impacts informed decisions, they noted actual performance often refutes established expectations in statistics.
Crypto Markets Gain From Favorable Macro Trends
The analysts also examined near term Federal Reserve policy, projecting two interest rate cuts at the meetings in September and October.
They would be positive for digital assets, as lower borrowing costs normally induce activity in risk assets.
They are looking forward to Bitcoin, continuing to perform better due to current national economic realities, such as increasing United States inflation at 2.9%.
Reports showed that consumer prices increased 0.4% in August, supporting expectations that monetary policy changes would favor speculative investments.
The markets are openly anticipating 25 basis point cuts in both meetings ahead, giving optimism for better fourth quarter growth.
The Coinbase researchers summed up by expressing optimism that favorable macro trends, regulation, and liquidity would strengthen crypto markets ahead.
